A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
